I might be shooting myself in the foot here with this post, but it is a very timely one. How to do well in your Office/friends/party Oscar poll? It is very simple, wining your poll has really nothing to do with your personal tastes. It has all to do with what you read, who you read and a pinch of luck. I cant help with the luck of the upsets, but as for what and who to read here is my 3 step guide. And given the fact that this is probably one of the most competitive year for the Oscars in ages, predicting will be fun!
1. Read the Roundups, Coverage and Predictions from the top sites...
Gold Derby – the ultimate guide – they have the best consolidation of pundits
- Oscars Expert predix in All Races – this is the bible of Oscar predictions! with pretty much a compilation of all experts and editors on the subject
- Oscars Category Analysis
- Our fearless, peerless 100% accurate Oscar predictions
- The Seven Reasons Argo Is Likely to Win Best Picture
- Best Picture: How Argo Could Lose
- Best Director: Without Ben Affleck, Who Has the Edge?
- Vulture’s Guide to the 2013 Oscar Shorts: What’s Good, What’s Bad, and What Will Win
- Best Actor: Will Daniel Day-Lewis Make Oscar History?
- Best Supporting Actress: If Not Anne Hathaway, Then Who?
- Best Supporting Actor: Will It Be Waltz, Jones, or De Niro?
- Best Actress: Are You Ready for a Surprise Win?
EW- Oscars 2013: And the Winners Will Be…, EW’s final forecast for all 24 categories & Oscars Headquarters
- Big Bad Predictions Chart
- Awards Daily Simulated Oscar Ballot: Final Results!
- All of the Stats I know to be True for Oscars 2012
- The State of the Race: Out from the Grizzly Maze
- Ben Affleck and the Charm Offensive
- Best Actress: The Veterans and the Rising Stars
- 50 Psychics Predict Lincoln to win Best Picture
- Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot
LATimes – The Envelope– Arts categories predictions, Oscars 2013: ‘Argo’ generates most heat, but can ‘Lincoln’ catch it?
Other Predictions from CBS, Huff Post, Vanity Fair: How to Adjust Your Oscar-Pool Picks After Sunday’s BAFTAs (Important Jennifer Lawrence–Related Update!) and There Is a Mathematical Formula for Predicting Oscar Winners, and It Involves the IMDB Comments Section
2. Track the Previous Awards and Trends
Check out winners for the SAG, BAFTAS, Golden Globes, DGA, PGA & Critics Circles and all the commentary on how they correlate with the Oscars (all spelled out in the articles and links above)
3. Go with your gut and take one or two risks–– by playing it safe with the most likely winner you are never going to win the poll. You’ll be high up there but you probably wont be differentiated. How to do that – go on a limb — vote for that underdog and pray they win 🙂
To Make it more fun, some other fun Oscar articles to prep for Oscar Night…
- The Oscar Best Picture Nominees As Pie Charts
- How to Feel When Your Ex Is Nominated for an Oscar
- Best Picture Will Not Conclude the Oscars This Year
- 25 Greatest Working Directors
- Oscars: Ranking Hosts of Past 20 Years
- Oscars: Top 25 Best Picture Winners
- What the Oscar Stage will look like
- Oscars Best and Worse Moments since 2008
- Vanity Fair Oscar Party Souvenirs
- oh and if you want to have fun betting on it in a non monetary way – go to hsx.com!
…and a little video
I really like this article! Great job laying out everything one needs to know about Oscar predictions! I will be writing my predictions in the next couple of days! One of my writers has already posted his predictions: http://vlizz.com/2013/02/19/official-selection-and-the-2013-oscars-go-to/